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You do not need to panic sell your entire collection

It's hard to think of a Black commander more self-contained and satisfying than Sephiroth

Team Rocket's Moltres ex 031/182 Loading

(In order for the bottom card to not be Lightning Bolt, it needs to be the case that it isn't the known Lightning Bolt (probability 1/2) and the other card needs to not be a Lightning Bolt (probability 46/49), so the chance of both of those being true is simply their product.) I on the other hand saw both cards and know that the other one wasn't a Lightning Bolt, so I calculate the chance of the bottom card being Lightning Bolt as exactly 50%